Everyday Economics: Labor data significance

(The Center Square) – This week’s economic calendar brings familiar names – the ISM Manufacturing and Services indices – but the real focus is the return of government labor market data after the shutdown-induced blackout. The November JOLTS report and the December jobs report will provide the first clean read on whether the labor market’s recent softening was a temporary pause or the start of a more durable slowdown. Before the shutdown, the jobs market already was bending in a less reassuring direction. Since January 2025, nearly one million additional Americans have become unemployed, while total employment has declined by roughly 154,000. Those are not numbers consistent with a labor market that is merely “cooling.” They reflect a market that has moved past peak tightness and is now absorbing weaker demand, slower hiring, and a rising pace of layoffs. Consensus expectations for the December jobs report reflect that reality. Payroll growth is expected to be slim, and the unemploymen